Builder Confidence Slips in May on High Rates
The NAHB found that 25% of builders cut home prices to bolster sales in May. Overall, builder confidence posted its first decline since November 2023.
WASHINGTON – With mortgage rates averaging above 7% for the past four weeks per data from Freddie Mac, builder sentiment posted its first decline since November 2023.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 45 in May, down six points from April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released Wednesday.
“The market has slowed down since mortgage rates increased and this has pushed many potential buyers back to the sidelines,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “We are also concerned about the recent codes rules that require HUD (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development) and USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) to insure mortgages for new single-family homes only if they are built to the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code. This will further increase the cost of construction in a market that sorely needs more inventory for first-time and first-generation buyers.”
“A lack of progress on reducing inflation pushed long-term interest rates higher in the first quarter and this is acting as a drag on builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The last leg in the inflation fight is to reduce shelter inflation, and this can only occur if builders are able to construct more attainable, affordable housing.”
The May HMI survey also revealed that 25% of builders cut home prices to bolster sales in May, ending four months of consecutive declines in this metric. However, the average price reduction in May held steady at 6% for the 11th straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives ticked up to 59% in May from a reading of 57% in April.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three HMI component indices posted declines in May. The HMI index charting current sales conditions in May fell six points to 51, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell nine points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers declined four points to 30.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Midwest increased three points to 49, the Northeast fell two points to 61, the South dropped two points to 49 and the West posted a four-point decline to 43.
Born
William Henry Seward (politician) – 1801
Henry Fonda (actor) – 1905
Studs Terkel (writer) – 1912
Theodore Holmes Bullock (neuroscientist) – 1915
Liberace (entertainer) – 1919
Pierce Brosnan (actor) – 1953
Olga Korbut (Olympic gold medalist/gymnast) – 1955
Debra Winger (actress) – 1955
Joan Benoit Samuelson (runner, Olympic gold medalist) – 1957
Janet Jackson (singer) – 1966
Tracey Gold (actress) – 1969
Tucker Carlson (television commentator) – 1969
David Boreanaz (actor) – 1971
Jim Sturgess (actor) – 1981
Thomas Sangster (actor) – 1990
Realtor.com® February Rental Report: Renting Now Beats Buying in All of the Largest U.S. Metros
SANTA CLARA, Calif., March 26, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Elevated mortgage interest rates, still-high home prices and falling rents have made it more affordable to rent than buy in all of the top 50 U.S. metros, according to the Realtor.com® Rental Report released today. In February, the mortgage payment on a starter home in the largest metros cost $1,027 (+60.1%) more than the monthly rent in those markets, on average. At the same time last year, 45 metros favored renting.
The top 10 metros with the largest rent versus buy savings (see below for top 50 metros):
1. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas – $2,165 monthly rent savings (141.5% difference)
2. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. – $2,422 (121.1%)
3. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz. – $1,528 (99.0%)
4. San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif. – $2,689 (95.5%)
5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif. – $2,539 (89.7%)
6. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. – $2,780 (86.7%)
7. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn. – $1,366 (86.0%)
8. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore. Wash. – $1,396 (84.4%)
9. Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, Calif. – $1,514 (82.1%)
10. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas – $1,103 (80.0%)
"With rents continuing to fall and the cost of buying a home remaining high, exacerbated by the rise in mortgage rates in the later half of 2023, renting a home is now a more cost-effective option in all major U.S. markets," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com®. "Deciding whether to rent or buy often goes beyond a financial advantage though, and likely depends on a consumer's circumstances. Renters often prize flexibility while the biggest reasons homebuyers cite are that they want a place of their own and to be closer to family and friends. The financial scales have tipped monthly costs in favor of renting over buying, but it does not bring the benefit of housing wealth gains over time that owning does and movers should consider their long-term housing plans and personal situation as they make this decision."
The overall advantage of renting continues to grow in most markets
In February, the cost of buying a starter home in the top 50 metros was $1,027 (60.1%) higher than renting one; comparatively, the cost to buy was $865 higher than renting in February 2023 – a $162 higher monthly savings from renting compared to the prior year. The savings are mostly driven by declining rent prices and higher buying costs, especially interest rates – the 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained elevated at 6.78% in February 2024 compared to 6.26% 12 months ago.
The advantages of renting have become more pronounced across the top metros. Looking specifically at the top 10 metros that favor renting over buying, the average monthly costs for buying a starter home were $1,950 (95.6%) higher than rents – nearly double the cost. Those metros are mostly markets with a higher concentration of tech workers and high earners, where both the average rent and buy costs are higher than the national average.
Renting beats buying in all major metros, especially in south and west; five metros flip from last year
In February, median rents fell across all unit sizes. Despite seven months of annual rent declines, median rents are still $252 (17.3%) higher than the same time in 2020, before the onset of the pandemic. Last February, 45 metros favored renting, but over the past 12 months Memphis, Tenn, Birmingham, Ala., Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Baltimore metros flipped from favoring buying to favoring renting. Four out of five of those markets were among the top markets seeing a high share of investor activity, which may have accelerated the growth of home prices there and increased the overall costs of buying a home, tilting those markets further toward favoring renting over buying.
Austin, Texas, where the monthly cost of buying a starter home was $3,695 – 141.5% more than the monthly rent of $1,530, for a monthly savings of $2,165 – topped the list of markets most favoring renting. Other top markets favoring renting over buying were Seattle, Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Metros with diminishing rental advantages were San Jose, Calif.; Dallas; San Francisco; Columbus, Ohio; Miami; and Minneapolis.
Methodology
Rental data as of February 2024 for studio, 1-bedroom, or 2-bedroom units advertised as for-rent on Realtor.com®. Rental units include apartments as well as private rentals (condos, townhomes, single-family homes). We use rental sources that reliably report data each month within the top 50 largest metropolitan areas. Realtor.com® began publishing regular monthly rental trends reports in October 2020 with data history stretching back to March 2019.
The monthly cost of buying a home was calculated by averaging the median listing prices of studio, 1-bed, and 2-bed homes, weighted by the number of listings, in each housing market. Monthly buying costs assume a 8% down payment, with a mortgage rate of 6.78%, and include taxes, insurance and HOA fees.
With the release of its January 2024 rent report, Realtor.com® incorporated a new and improved methodology for capturing and reporting more comprehensive rental listing trends and metrics. The new methodology is expected to yield a cleaner, more representative and more consistent measurement of rental listings and trends at both the national and local level. The methodology has been adjusted to better represent the true cost of primary housing for renters. Most areas across the country will see minor changes with a smaller handful of areas seeing larger updates. As a result of these changes, the rental data released since January 2024 will not be directly comparable with previous releases and Realtor.com® economics blog posts. However, future data releases, including historical data, will consistently apply the new methodology.
Mark Hoeft ~ 850-525-2765 ~ Mark@TheFloridaCoast.com ~ The Florida Coast Realty Pensacola
Welcome to TheFloridaCoast.com; I would like to introduce myself, my name is Mark Hoeft I am a Florida Real Estate Broker & Owner of The Florida Coast Realty Pensacola LLC in Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, & Gulf Breeze Florida, I also the proud owner of The Florida Coast Realty West Palm & The Florida Coast Realty Destin Florida. It would be my honor to help you find your slice of Florida's beautiful Emerald Coast that you've been searching for. Whether you are looking for your primary home, a second home, or investment property for your Real Estate portfolio on Florida's beautiful Gulf Coast. I specializing in Beach Homes, Condos, and Townhouses. I use my 20 years of knowledge and dedication to hard work to make your real estate transaction as smooth as possible. I've become a leader in buying and selling Pensacola Real Estate, Scenic Gulf Breeze Homes, and Pensacola Beach Condos & Homes. I pride myself in my professionalism and expertise. I've closed over 350 real estate transactions and have totaled more than $40,000,000.00 in sales during the past 20 years.
thurSDAY, may 16, 2024
Died
Andy Kaufman (comedian & actor) – 1984
Sammy Davis Jr. (entertainer) – 1990
Jim Henson (creator of The Muppets) – 1990
Advice of the DaY
Crow on the fence, rain will go hence. Crow on the ground, rain will come down.
EVENTS
Marie Antoinette (age 14) married future King Louis XVI of France (age 15)– 1770
U.S. Congress gave authorization to mint the nickel– 1866
Charles Elmer Hires invented root beer– 1866
Grand League of the American Horseshoe Pitchers Association was organized in Kansas City, Kansas– 1914
Joan of Arc was canonized– 1920
President John F. Kennedy began a 3-day visit to Canada– 1961
Fire broke out at tire dump, St-Amable, Quebec– 1990
In downtown Houston, Texas, large, black grackles, in an effort to protect their fallen offspring, attacked the heads, hair, and backs of pedestrians.– 2005
Canadian Victoria Cross unveiled– 2008
Discovery of 2.6-billion-year-old water in Ontario mine announced– 2013